Congratulations Jacqueline Mutai

Congratulations to Jacqueline Mutai on the successful defense of her PhD. Her work was an analysis of the immunoglobulin gene repertoire in the human B cell response to Plasmodium falciparum malaria during natural and experimental malaria infections.

Congratulations Patience kiyuka

Congratulations to Patience Kiyuka on receiving the inaugural Eric and Wendy Schmidt Awards for Excellence in Science Communications. The prestigious award recognizes science journalists and research scientists who have developed creative, original work that addresses issues and advances in science, engineering, and/or medicinefor the public.

Congratulations Prof. George Warimwe

Congratulations to George Warimwe for being conferred the title full Professor of Vaccinology at the University of Oxford. “I’m truly honoured by this recognition. It is testimony to the excellent mentorship received over the years and the immense contribution to vaccine R&D in Africa by the team of amazingly talented scientists that work with me in Kenya and Oxford” said Prof Warimwe. Prof Warimwe was among six researchers awarded, in recognition of their distinction in research, and their contributions to teaching, and to the general work of the Nuffield Department of Medicine in Oxford University. Prof Warimwe works on viral infections transmitted between humans and animals in Africa, developing vaccines for their control. An example is Rift Valley Fever – a mosquito-borne viral illness that primarily affects humans and livestock (sheep, goats, cattle) in Africa – for which Prof Warimwe has developed a novel chimpanzee adenovirus vectored vaccine, that is highly efficacious in livestock and is currently in human phase I clinical trials. His previous work includes a similar One Health vaccine for use against Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS) in camels and humans, with his veterinary research programmes continuing to inform advances in human vaccinology. Prof Warimwe’s other work includes addressing the global shortage in Yellow Fever (YF) vaccine supply through leadership of trials to evaluate the utility of fractional vaccine dosing for epidemic control. Findings from this work will have a major impact on the number of doses that can be given based on the current global stock of YF vaccine and the number of doses that are produced for future use. His recent work on COVID-19 serology in Kenya has informed decisions on the national pandemic response and remains one of the most comprehensive COVID-19 seroepidemiological programmes in Africa to date. Congratulations again Prof Warimwe!

Quality of care, health workers’ well-being and COVID-19

Nurses are central players in the provision of quality health care globally. In the COVID-19 pandemic, factors such as a shortage of medical resources, long busy shifts, restrictions on socialization, and the pain of losing infected colleagues, as well as the fear getting infected and infecting family members, have contributed to high levels of stress among nurses. Although neonatal units have not been at the epicenter of the current pandemic, similar challenges have also been raised for neonatal nurses. In this brief, we share their COVID-19 related experiences and challenges, highlight strategies they used to manage the challenges and show how elements of the communication skills and emotional competence course helped them cope. Quality of care health workers well being and COVID-19.

High prevalence of antibodies against COVID-19 within the general population: Evidence from Nairobi and Kilifi

The prevalence of malaria parasite in the population is a key metric used for disease stratification at national and sub-national levels. It is striking that the prevalence of malaria at sub-national levels is heterogenous, transcending national borders in Kenya, Tanzania and Uganda. Nationally it is predicted as 4.7% (2.6–36.9) in Kenya, 10.6% (3.4–39.2) in mainland Tanzania, and 9.5% (4.0–48.3) in Uganda translating. Approximately 12.7 million people in East Africa continue to live in areas where prevalence is ≥ 30%, including 6.4%, 12.1% and 6.3% of Kenya, mainland Tanzania and Uganda populations, respectively. This mapping highlights why countries must work together or jointly to reduce burden and prevent further malaria deaths. Read more about this research in a recently published article https://journals.plos.org/globalpublichealth/article?id=10.1371/journal.pgph.0000014#sec013

Policy Brief; Modelling the Cost-Effectiveness of COVID-19 Vaccination Strategies in Kenya

The KEMRI-Wellcome Trust Research Programme today released the results of its latest modelling on COVID-19 vaccine scale-up within the country. The analysis found that the country’s COVID-19 vaccination campaign can achieve greater value for money if it focuses on the elderly, rather than a strategy that pursues scaling up vaccines to the whole population.;  Find the Policy Brief

Determining the causal role of malaria in elevating blood pressure and pulse wave velocity in Kenyan adolescents and adults.

INTRODUCTION: High blood pressure is recognized as a leading risk factor for stroke and death in sub-Saharan Africa (sSA). While many studies have examined the role of established risk factors such as obesity and salt consumption, less is known about other factors, such as infection, that could be of particular importance in sSA. Ambulatory blood pressure measurement has emerged as the optimal method in recent years in Western settings, but there has been limited use to date in sSA. This work presents the results of a study investigating whether malaria, which is widespread in sSA could contribute to the development of high blood pressure using ambulatory measurements. METHODS: Preliminary work involved determining the prevalence of hypertension in Kilifi, Kenya and examining the population-level effects of using ambulatory blood pressure monitoring (ABPM) for diagnosing hypertension. A literature review outlining the basis of the malaria-high blood pressure hypothesis and the Mendelian randomization method for testing the hypothesis was conducted. Sickle cell trait and alpha (+) thalassemia were chosen as instrumental variables to represent malaria exposure because they protect against malaria. Two studies were performed in Nairobi, Kenya among the same cohort to confirm that sickle-cell trait and alpha-thalassemia do not influence blood pressure in the absence of malaria and were therefore valid instrumental variables to test the malaria-high blood pressure hypothesis in Kilifi where there is malaria transmission. A Mendelian randomization study was then conducted in Kilifi, Kenya where 24-hour blood pressure and arterial stiffness indices were compared in individuals with and without sickle cell trait and alpha thalassemia. RESULTS: The prevalence of hypertension in Kilifi, a rural area, was found to be as high as in urban areas of Kenya despite the low frequency of classical risk factors such as obesity and excessive salt consumption. Use of ambulatory blood pressure monitoring for diagnosing hypertension was found to improve the accuracy of detection of high blood pressure. Neither Sickle-cell trait (SCT) nor alpha+ thalassemia influenced blood pressure or arterial stiffness indices among adolescents that had been lifelong residents of Nairobi, where there is no malaria transmission. Among individuals that had been lifelong residents of Kilifi, Kenya where there has been on-going malaria transmission, blood pressure was found to be lower among individuals with SCT, which protects against malaria episodes compared to those without SCT. The difference in BP by SCT status was larger in women than in men. There were no significant differences in arterial stiffness based on SCT status. CONCLUSION: This work suggests that malaria contributes to the burden of hypertension in sSA, and the control of malaria may lead to a reduction in blood pressure in this group. Future work should focus on confirming the findings using alternative study designs such as examining blood pressure in cohorts born before and after complete malaria elimination in parts of the world where this has been achieved. Subsequent work would involve delineating the pathophysiological mechanisms involved in malaria induced BP elevation with a view to generating new drugs to control hypertension.

Geostatistical Methods for Disease Mapping and Visualisation Using Data from Spatio-temporally Referenced Prevalence Surveys

Summary In this paper, we set out general principles and develop geostatistical methods for the analysis of data from spatio-temporally referenced prevalence surveys. Our objective is to provide a tutorial guide that can be used in order to identify parsimonious geostatistical models for prevalence mapping. A general variogram-based Monte Carlo procedure is proposed to check the validity of the modelling assumptions. We describe and contrast likelihood-based and Bayesian methods of inference, showing how to account for parameter uncertainty under each of the two paradigms. We also describe extensions of the standard model for disease prevalence that can be used when stationarity of the spatio-temporal covariance function is not supported by the data. We discuss how to define predictive targets and argue that exceedance probabilities provide one of the most effective ways to convey uncertainty in prevalence estimates. We describe statistical software for the visualisation of spatio-temporal predictive summaries of prevalence through interactive animations. Finally, we illustrate an application to historical malaria prevalence data from 1 334 surveys conducted in Senegal between 1905 and 2014.

Malaria risk: Estimating clinical episodes of malaria (reply)

ABSTRACT Nature Snow, Robert W., Guerra, Carlos A., Noor, Abdisalan M., Myint, Hly Y., Hay, Simon I. Pages:E4-E5, Volume:437, Edition:, Date, Link: http://hinari-gw.who.int/whalecomdx.doi.org/whalecom0/10.1038/nature04180 Notes:10.1038/nature04180 ISBN: 0028-0836 Permanent ID: Accession Number: Author Address: STATISTICS

New Research Highlights Need to Adjust COVID Vaccination Approach

The new analysis demonstrates that quickly channelling doses to vulnerable groups can save both lives and money. The KEMRI-Wellcome Trust Research Programme today released the results of its latest modelling on COVID-19 vaccine scale-up within the country. The analysis found that the country’s COVID-19 vaccination campaign can achieve greater value for money if it focuses on the elderly, rather than a strategy that pursues scaling up vaccines to the whole population. “This new data suggests that we can fight COVID more effectively by re-focusing our efforts on those who need it most,” said Prof Edwine Barasa, Director at the Nairobi Programme of the KEMRI-Wellcome Trust Research Programme. “Vaccines work; and ensuring older adults and other at-risk groups receive them quickly is the best way to achieve greater health outcomes and is better value for money. We hope this data helps policymakers across the continent determine how to structure impactful, cost-effective, long-term COVID-19 responses.” COVID-19 has had a number of negative impacts on the health system in Kenya over the past two years. Between 2019 and 2020, data from the Global Fund to Fight AIDS, TB and Malaria show that the number of malaria cases treated in the country fell by 27%, while HIV testing fell by 37% percent. More than 10,000 fewer individuals were treated for tuberculosis. The KEMRI-Wellcome Trust research team modelled a broad range of COVID vaccine scale-up scenarios and tested each one for cost-effectiveness and its impact on the spread of the disease. These forecasts estimate what would happen if vaccine scale-up reached 30%, 50% or 70% of the Kenyan population, under both slow (18 month) and rapid (6 month) scenarios. A no vaccination scenario was modelled as a baseline. In all cases, the model scales up vaccination to adults over 50 years before extending to the broader population. Under both the slow and rapid scale-up scenarios, reaching 30% coverage with priority given to adults over 50 averts a substantial number of new infections and deaths – 32 per 100,000 new infections in the 18-month scenario, and 39 per 100,000 in the rapid scenario; as well as ~8,100 or ~9,400 deaths respectively. Reaching a threshold of 50% and subsequently 70% a would avert an additional ~1,100 deaths under the slow scenario, and an additional ~400 deaths in the rapid scenario. “The game has changed on COVID-19,” said Justice Novignon, head of the Africa CDC’s Health Economics Unit. “Countries need to re-focus their COVID-19 vaccination programs on the kinds of strategies that will save more lives for less money, especially in settings with overall low risk of severe disease and death and high natural immunity, and constrained resources as is the case in Kenya and Africa more broadly, targeting the elderly and those with risk increasing comorbidities rather than to the whole population. We have to make every last dollar count.” The research found that scaling-up to 30% vaccine coverage is highly cost effective; while the 50% and 70% scenarios were not, given the lower risk of severe

Individualized breastfeeding support for acutely ill, malnourished infants under 6 months old

Reestablishing exclusive breastfeeding is the cornerstone of the 2013 World Health Organization (WHO) treatment guidelines for acute malnutrition in infants less than 6 months. However, no studies have investigated guideline implementation and subsequent outcomes in a public hospital setting in Africa. To facilitate implementation of the WHO 2013 guidelines in Kilifi County Hospital, Kenya, we developed standard operating procedure, recruited, and trained three breastfeeding peer supporters (BFPS). Between September 2016 and January 2018, the BFPS provided individual breastfeeding support to mothers of infants aged 4 weeks to 4 months admitted to Kilifi County Hospital with an illness and acute malnutrition (mid-upper-arm circumference < 11.0 cm OR weight-for-age z score < -2 OR weight-for-length z score < -2). Infants were followed daily while in hospital then every 2 weeks for 6 weeks after discharge with data collected on breastfeeding, infant growth, morbidity, and mortality. Of 106 infants with acute malnutrition at admission, 51 met the inclusion criteria for the study. Most enrolled mothers had multiple breastfeeding challenges, which were predominantly technique based. Exclusive breastfeeding was 55% at admission and 81% at discharge; at discharge 67% of infants had attained a weight velocity of >5 g/kg/day for three consecutive days on breastmilk alone. Gains in weight-for-length z score and weight-for-age z score were generally not sustained beyond 2 weeks after discharge. BFPS operated effectively in an inpatient setting, applying the 2013 updated WHO guidelines and increasing rates of exclusive breastfeeding at discharge. However, lack of continued increase in anthropometric Z scores after discharge suggests the need for more sustained interventions.

Geostatistical Methods for Disease Mapping and Visualisation Using Data from Spatio-temporally Referenced Prevalence Surveys

Summary In this paper, we set out general principles and develop geostatistical methods for the analysis of data from spatio-temporally referenced prevalence surveys. Our objective is to provide a tutorial guide that can be used in order to identify parsimonious geostatistical models for prevalence mapping. A general variogram-based Monte Carlo procedure is proposed to check the validity of the modelling assumptions. We describe and contrast likelihood-based and Bayesian methods of inference, showing how to account for parameter uncertainty under each of the two paradigms. We also describe extensions of the standard model for disease prevalence that can be used when stationarity of the spatio-temporal covariance function is not supported by the data. We discuss how to define predictive targets and argue that exceedance probabilities provide one of the most effective ways to convey uncertainty in prevalence estimates. We describe statistical software for the visualisation of spatio-temporal predictive summaries of prevalence through interactive animations. Finally, we illustrate an application to historical malaria prevalence data from 1 334 surveys conducted in Senegal between 1905 and 2014.

Malaria risk: Estimating clinical episodes of malaria (reply)

ABSTRACT Nature Snow, Robert W., Guerra, Carlos A., Noor, Abdisalan M., Myint, Hly Y., Hay, Simon I. Pages:E4-E5, Volume:437, Edition:, Date, Link: http://hinari-gw.who.int/whalecomdx.doi.org/whalecom0/10.1038/nature04180 Notes:10.1038/nature04180 ISBN: 0028-0836 Permanent ID: Accession Number: Author Address: STATISTICS

Celebrating Dr. Emelda Okiro

Dr Emelda Okiro has been awarded the prestigious Wellcome Senior Research Fellowship. Emelda’s fellowship is the first African Senior Research Fellowship awarded in the KEMRI-Wellcome Research Programme and among the less than five SRFs awarded to researchers in Africa. “To be awarded this fellowship is a great honour, and I am grateful to the many people who have inspired and supported me so far.” Emelda said. The project will utilize a series of linked national, hospital-level and population-based studies within a network of health and demographic surveillance sites to evaluate challenges plaguing CRVS and define context-specific solution pathways for achieving universal coverage of CRVS in Kenya. It will run for the next five years supporting several students and working closely with the Civil Registration Services Department. The Wellcome SRFs seek to provide funding support to independent researchers emerging as global leaders in their field and want to tackle the most important questions in science. Emelda has over 18 years of population health experience at country, regional and global levels. She has proven competency in public health and health systems research, implementation and programme evaluation.

Research finds that half of deaths among children admitted to hospital happens after discharge

Young children in sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia who become sick or malnourished continue to have a high risk of death in the six months after being hospitalized, according to findings by researchers in the Childhood Acute Illness & Nutrition (CHAIN) Network. Appearing in The Lancet Global Health, the study of 3,101 acutely ill children at nine hospitals in six countries across sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia found that 48% of the 350 deaths recorded occurred within six months after discharge from hospital. “The finding that many children die after being discharged from hospital is tragic. This calls for a review of the treatment guidelines and for home-based interventions to prevent these unfortunate deaths,” said Dr. Tahmeed Ahmed, Executive Director of the International Centre for Diarrhoeal Disease Research, Bangladesh (icddr,b) and one of CHAIN’s lead researchers. In the 6 months after discharge, a large proportion of children were high-risk with a 1 in 5 chance of dying. Post-discharge deaths could be predicted as easily as inpatient deaths when from children’s admission, discharge, nutritional status and social circumstance information. Despite being highly predictable, post-discharge deaths are not addressed by clinicians and health facilities that rely on current national or WHO treatment and care guidelines. Importantly, the researchers also found that many children admitted to hospital had very low risks of mortality. The researchers found children classified as malnourished, who comprised most study deaths, had substantial risks arising from non-nutritional issues such as access to medical care, household resources and children’s other underlying medical conditions. To reduce their risk of death, socioeconomic issues and management of maternal physical and mental health conditions need to be addressed alongside medical and nutritional management. The CHAIN researchers conducted detailed interviews with families and found that while caregivers attempted to seek care for their children, many faced barriers in accessing care and managing illness. These findings indicate opportunities to improve the resilience and choices for caregivers, which in turn may improve timely access to medical services in case of becoming ill after discharge from hospital. “When acutely ill children present to care, there is not enough digging to understand how we should support these children when they go back home. These children end up in a vicious cycle of vulnerability and sometimes die. There is a lot of focus on the clinical condition of acutely ill children without putting the same magnitude as to where they are coming from and the factors which contribute to their vulnerability,” said Dr. Ezekiel Mupere, Chair of the Department of Paediatrics & Child Health at Makerere University, and the lead CHAIN researcher in Uganda. The authors suggest a fundamental shift in guidelines to risk-based approaches to inpatient and post-discharge management to further reduce childhood mortality. Assessment of risk at discharge from hospital will be an important step in preventing child deaths. Furthermore, the authors suggest that identifying children at very low-risk of death may enable reallocation of staff and resources to higher-risk children in under-resourced health systems. Read the full

Scaling up the primary health integrated care project for chronic conditions in Kenya: study protocol for an implementation research project

INTRODUCTION: Amid the rising number of people with non-communicable diseases (NCDs), Kenya has invested in strengthening primary care and in efforts to expand existing service delivery platforms to integrate NCD care. One such approach is the AMPATH (Academic Model Providing Access to Healthcare) model in western Kenya, which provides the platform for the Primary Health Integrated Care Project for Chronic Conditions (PIC4C), launched in 2018 to further strengthen primary care services for the prevention and control of hypertension, diabetes, breast and cervical cancer. This study seeks to understand how well PIC4C delivers on its intended aims and to inform and support scale up of the PIC4C model for integrated care for people with NCDs in Kenya. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: The study is guided by a conceptual framework on implementing, sustaining and spreading innovation in health service delivery. We use a multimethod design combining qualitative and quantitative approaches, involving: (1) in-depth interviews with health workers and decision-makers to explore experiences of delivering PIC4C; (2) a cross-sectional survey of patients with diabetes or hypertension and in-depth interviews to understand how well PIC4C meets patients’ needs; (3) a cohort study with an interrupted time series analysis to evaluate the degree to which PIC4C leads to health benefits such as improved management of hypertension or diabetes; and (4) a cohort study of households to examine the extent to which the national hospital insurance chronic care package provides financial risk protection to people with hypertension or diabetes within PIC4C. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: The study has received approvals from Moi University Institutional Research and Ethics Committee (FAN:0003586) and the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine (17940). Workshops with key stakeholders at local, county, national and international levels will ensure early and wide dissemination of our findings to inform scale up of this model of care. We will also publish findings in peer-reviewed journals.

Community and Public Engagement: 2016 -2021 Evaluation Report

Monitoring and Evaluation helps us keep track of our public engagement activities and outcomes. KEMRI -Wellcome Trust recently completed a report detailing our experiences and learning. Find the report here: Community and Public Engagement M&E Report

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