COVID-19 transmission dynamics underlying epidemic waves in Kenya



Policy decisions on COVID-19 interventions should be informed by a local, regional and national understanding of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) transmission. Epidemic waves may result when restrictions are lifted or poorly adhered to, variants with new phenotypic properties successfully invade, or infection spreads to susceptible subpopulations. Three COVID-19 epidemic waves have been observed in Kenya. Using a mechanistic mathematical model, we explain the first two distinct waves by differences in contact rates in high and low social-economic groups, and the third wave by the introduction of higher-transmissibility variants. Reopening schools led to a minor increase in transmission between the second and third waves. Socioeconomic and urban-rural population structure are critical determinants of viral transmission in Kenya.

Brand, S. P. C., Ojal, J., Aziza, R., Were, V., Okiro, E. A., Kombe, I. K., Mburu, C., Ogero, M., Agweyu, A., Warimwe, G. M., Nyagwange, J., Karanja, H., Gitonga, J. N., Mugo, D., Uyoga, S., Adetifa, I. M. O., Scott, J. A. G., Otieno, E., Murunga, N., Otiende, M., Ochola-Oyier, L. I., Agoti, C. N., Githinji, G., Kasera, K., Amoth, P., Mwangangi, M., Aman, R., Ng’ang’a, W., Tsofa, B., Bejon, P., Keeling, M. J., Nokes, D. J., Barasa, E.

Pages:989-994, Volume:374, Edition:10/8/2021, Date,Nov-19


Notes:Brand, Samuel P C|Ojal, John|Aziza, Rabia|Were, Vincent|Okiro, Emelda A|Kombe, Ivy K|Mburu, Caroline|Ogero, Morris|Agweyu, Ambrose|Warimwe, George M|Nyagwange, James|Karanja, Henry|Gitonga, John N|Mugo, Daisy|Uyoga, Sophie|Adetifa, Ifedayo M O|Scott, J Anthony G|Otieno, Edward|Murunga, Nickson|Otiende, Mark|Ochola-Oyier, Lynette I|Agoti, Charles N|Githinji, George|Kasera, Kadondi|Amoth, Patrick|Mwangangi, Mercy|Aman, Rashid|Ng’ang’a, Wangari|Tsofa, Benjamin|Bejon, Philip|Keeling, Matt J|Nokes, D James|Barasa, Edwine|eng|203077/WT_/Wellcome Trust/United Kingdom|WT_/Wellcome Trust/United Kingdom|107568/WT_/Wellcome Trust/United Kingdom|220991/WT_/Wellcome Trust/United Kingdom|220985/WT_/Wellcome Trust/United Kingdom|201866/WT_/Wellcome Trust/United Kingdom|Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov’t|2021/10/08 06:00|Science. 2021 Nov 19;374(6570):989-994. doi: 10.1126/science.abk0414. Epub 2021 Oct 7.

ISBN: 1095-9203 (Electronic)|0036-8075 (Linking) Permanent ID: PMC7612211 Accession Number: 34618602

Author Address: Kenya Medical Research Institute (KEMRI)-Wellcome Trust Research Programme (KWTRP), Kilifi, Kenya.|The Zeeman Institute for Systems Biology and Infectious Disease Epidemiology Research (SBIDER), University of Warwick, Warwick, UK.|School of Life Sciences, University of Warwick, Warwick, UK.|London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine (LSHTM), London, UK.|Health Economics Research Unit, KEMRI-Wellcome Trust Research Programme, Nairobi, Kenya.|Population Health Unit, Kenya Medical Research Institute-Wellcome Trust Research Programme, Nairobi, Kenya.|Centre for Tropical Medicine and Global Health, Nuffield Department of Medicine, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.|Department of Infectious Diseases Epidemiology, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, UK.|Ministry of Health, Government of Kenya, Nairobi, Kenya.|Presidential Policy and Strategy Unit, The Presidency, Government of Kenya.|Mathematics Institute, University of Warwick, Warwick, UK.