COVID-19 has impacted the health and livelihoods of billions of people since it emerged in 2019. Vaccination for COVID-19 is a critical intervention that is being rolled out globally to end the pandemic. Understanding the spatial inequalities in vaccination coverage and access to vaccination centres is important for planning this intervention nationally. Here, COVID-19 vaccination data, representing the number of people given at least one dose of vaccine, a list of the approved vaccination sites, population data and ancillary GIS data were used to assess vaccination coverage, using Kenya as an example. Firstly, physical access was modelled using travel time to estimate the proportion of population within 1 hour of a vaccination site. Secondly, a Bayesian conditional autoregressive (CAR) model was used to estimate the COVID-19 vaccination coverage and the same framework used to forecast coverage rates for the first quarter of 2022. Nationally, the average travel time to a designated COVID-19 vaccination site (n = 622) was 75.5 min (Range: 62.9 – 94.5 min) and over 87% of the population >18 years reside within 1 hour to a vaccination site. The COVID-19 vaccination coverage in December 2021 was 16.70% (95% CI: 16.66 – 16.74) – 4.4 million people and was forecasted to be 30.75% (95% CI: 25.04 – 36.96) – 8.1 million people by the end of March 2022. Approximately 21 million adults were still unvaccinated in December 2021 and, in the absence of accelerated vaccine uptake, over 17.2 million adults may not be vaccinated by end March 2022 nationally. Our results highlight geographic inequalities at sub-national level and are important in targeting and improving vaccination coverage in hard-to-reach populations. Similar mapping efforts could help other countries identify and increase vaccination coverage for such populations.
Muchiri, S. K., Muthee, R., Kiarie, H., Sitienei, J., Agweyu, A., Atkinson, P. M., Edson Utazi, C., Tatem, A. J., Alegana, V. A.
Pages:2011-2019, Volume:40, Edition:2/22/2022, Date,Mar-18
Notes:Muchiri, Samuel K|Muthee, Rose|Kiarie, Hellen|Sitienei, Joseph|Agweyu, Ambrose|Atkinson, Peter M|Edson Utazi, C|Tatem, Andrew J|Alegana, Victor A|eng|WT_/Wellcome Trust/United Kingdom|211208/WT_/Wellcome Trust/United Kingdom|203077/WT_/Wellcome Trust/United Kingdom|Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov’t|Netherlands|2022/02/22 06:00|Vaccine. 2022 Mar 18;40(13):2011-2019. doi: 10.1016/j.vaccine.2022.02.035. Epub 2022 Feb 14.
ISBN: 1873-2518 (Electronic)|0264-410X (Linking) Permanent ID: PMC8841160 Accession Number: 35184925
Author Address: Population Health Unit, Kenya Medical Research Institute-Wellcome Trust Research Programme, Nairobi, Kenya. Electronic address: SMuchiri@kemri-wellcome.org.|Department of Health Informatics, Monitoring and Evaluation, Ministry of Health, Nairobi, Kenya.|Epidemiology and Demography Department, KEMRI-Wellcome Trust Research Programme Nairobi, Kenya.|Lancaster Environment Centre, Lancaster University, Lancaster LA1 4YQ, UK| Geography and Environmental Science, University of Southampton, Highfield, Southampton SO17 1BJ, UK| Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resource Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China.|WorldPop, School of Geography and Environmental Science, University of Southampton, Southampton, UK| Southampton Statistical Sciences Research Institute, University of Southampton, Southampton, UK.|WorldPop, School of Geography and Environmental Science, University of Southampton, Southampton, UK.|Population Health Unit, Kenya Medical Research Institute-Wellcome Trust Research Programme, Nairobi, Kenya| Geography and Environmental Science, University of Southampton, Highfield, Southampton SO17 1BJ, UK.