Otiende M
Nyaguara A
Bottomley C
Walumbe D
Mochamah G
Amadi D
Nyundo C
Kagucia EW
Etyang AO
Adetifa IMO
Brand SPC
Maitha E
Chondo E
Nzomo E
Aman R
Mwangangi M
Amoth P
Kasera K
Ng'ang'a W
Barasa E
Tsofa B
Mwangangi J
Bejon P
Agweyu A
Williams TN
Scott JAG
Nat Commun. 2023;146879
The mortality impact of COVID-19 in Africa remains controversial because most countries lack vital registration. We analysed excess mortality in Kilifi Health and Demographic Surveillance System, Kenya, using 9 years of baseline data. SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence studies suggest most adults here were infected before May 2022. During 5 waves of COVID-19 (April 2020-May 2022) an overall excess mortality of 4.8% (95% PI 1.2%, 9.4%) concealed a significant excess (11.6%, 95% PI 5.9%, 18.9%) among older adults ( >/= 65 years) and a deficit among children aged 1-14 years (-7.7%, 95% PI -20.9%, 6.9%). The excess mortality rate for January 2020-December 2021, age-standardised to the Kenyan population, was 27.4/100,000 person-years (95% CI 23.2-31.6). In Coastal Kenya, excess mortality during the pandemic was substantially lower than in most high-income countries but the significant excess mortality in older adults emphasizes the value of achieving high vaccine coverage in this risk group.
