Abstract

Derivation and external validation of a clinical prognostic model identifying children at risk of death following presentation for diarrheal care

Ahmed SM Brintz BJ Talbert A Ngari M Pavlinac PB Platts-Mills JA Levine AC Nelson EJ Walson JL Kotloff KL Berkley JA Leung DT
PLOS Glob Public Health. 2023;3e0001937

Permenent descriptor

Diarrhea continues to be a leading cause of death for children under-five. Amongst children treated for acute diarrhea, mortality risk remains elevated during and after acute medical management. Identification of those at highest risk would enable better targeting of interventions, but available prognostic tools lack validation. We used clinical and demographic data from the Global Enteric Multicenter Study (GEMS) to build clinical prognostic models (CPMs) to predict death (in-treatment, after discharge, or either) in children aged