Abstract

Revealing the extent of the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic in Kenya based on serological and PCR-test data

Ojal J Brand SPC Were V Okiro EA Kombe IK Mburu C Aziza R Ogero M Agweyu A Warimwe GM Uyoga S Adetifa IMO Scott JAG Otieno E Ochola-Oyier LI Agoti CN Kasera K Amoth P Mwangangi M Aman R Ng'ang'a W Tsofa B Bejon P Barasa E Keeling MJ Nokes DJ
Wellcome Open Res. 2022;6127

Permenent descriptor

Policymakers in Africa need robust estimates of the current and future spread of SARS-CoV-2. We used national surveillance PCR test, serological survey and mobility data to develop and fit a county-specific transmission model for Kenya up to the end of September 2020, which encompasses the first wave of SARS-CoV-2 transmission in the country. We estimate that the first wave of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic peaked before the end of July 2020 in the major urban counties, with 30-50% of residents infected. Our analysis suggests, first, that the reported low COVID-19 disease burden in Kenya cannot be explained solely by limited spread of the virus, and second, that a 30-50% attack rate was not sufficient to avoid a further wave of transmission.