Abstract

Rotavirus vaccine effectiveness against rotavirus and acute gastroenteritis mortality: an analysis of pooled case-control studies from the MNSSTER-V dataset

Moran, M. C. Burnett, E. Groome, M. J. Michael, F. Breiman, R. F. Robinson, A. L. Iniguez, V. Mujuru, H. A. Goldfarb, D. M. Lungayo, C. L. Mandomando, I. Bonkoungou, I. J. O. Anwari, P. Contreras-Roldan, I. Enweronu-Laryea, C. N'Zue, K. Nalunkuma, C. Trang, N. V. Gheorghita, S. Sahakyan, G. Nazurdinov, A. Latipov, R. Uwimana, J. Rey-Benito, G. Weldegebriel, G. Mwenda, J. M. Parashar, U. D. Tate, J. E. Multi-National Subpopulations Study to Evaluate Rotavirus Vaccines project working, group
Lancet Child Adolesc Health. 2026;

Permanent descriptor

https://doi.org/10.1016/S2352-4642(26)00158-6

BACKGROUND: Rotavirus accounts for an estimated 25% of diarrhoea deaths in children under 5 years globally, and more than 140 countries have included rotavirus vaccines in their routine national infant vaccination programmes. We aimed to calculate rotavirus vaccine effectiveness against rotavirus-positive and all-cause acute gastroenteritis deaths. METHODS: The Multi-National Subpopulations Study to Evaluate Rotavirus Vaccines (MNSSTER-V) dataset combines child-level data from test-negative case-control studies of rotavirus vaccine effectiveness that enrolled children under 5 years of age seeking care for acute gastroenteritis at hospitals or emergency departments in 24 countries between July 1, 2007, and Aug 24, 2023. Children were included in this study if they were: younger than 5 years, met the acute gastroenteritis case definition (had at least three episodes of diarrhoea in a 24-h period, had non-bloody and non-chronic diarrhoea, and were enrolled within 7 days of diarrhoea onset), met vaccine card quality metrics, had vaccine delivery dates if the child was reported to have received a rotavirus vaccine, and had a reported outcome of death or discharge. In-hospital acute gastroenteritis deaths were characterised, and rotavirus vaccine effectiveness against all-cause and rotavirus-positive acute gastroenteritis mortality was calculated using an unconditional logistic regression model with adjustment for national under-5 mortality strata and child's age. Vaccine effectiveness analyses against all-cause and rotavirus-positive acute gastroenteritis mortality were restricted to children aged at least 3 months who received any routine vaccines from countries reporting at least one acute gastroenteritis death. FINDINGS: From the MNSSTER-V dataset, we included 27 252 children younger than 5 years enrolled from 22 countries; outcomes of patients were not available for two countries. At least one in-hospital acute gastroenteritis death was reported from 16 countries including 21 522 children; in total, 183 all-cause acute gastroenteritis deaths and 25 rotavirus-positive deaths were reported. Among children aged at least 3 months who had received any routine vaccines, receiving at least one dose of a rotavirus vaccine had an adjusted vaccine effectiveness of 75.8% (95% CI 28.4 to 91.8; n=13 630) against rotavirus-positive acute gastroenteritis mortality and 20.8% (-47.0 to 57.3; n=20 005) against all-cause acute gastroenteritis mortality. INTERPRETATION: Rotavirus vaccines are effective in preventing rotavirus-positive acute gastroenteritis mortality. Continued efforts to improve vaccine delivery could help to reduce acute gastroenteritis mortality due to rotavirus worldwide. FUNDING: None.