Zablon JO, Goel V, Giesbrecht D, Kariuki L, Mbogo C, Goedel WC, Bailey JA, Matoke-Muhia D
Malar J. 2026;
BACKGROUND: Malaria is a major public health problem, with over half of the world's population, primarily in sub-Saharan Africa, at risk. Climate change is already affecting the prevalence of malaria, in part by altering the distribution and density of mosquito vectors. This study assessed the relationship between climate variables and mosquito species distribution on malaria prevalence in Kenya from January 2019 to June 2021. METHODS: Data from 23 Kenyan counties were analyzed using mixed-effect regression, spatial analysis, correlation analysis, and the Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator (LASSO) to select variables. RESULTS: Malaria prevalence was highest in the Lake Endemic (19%), followed by the Coastal Endemic (5%), semi-arid seasonal (2%), and low-risk (0.9%) malaria epidemiologic zones in 2020. Mosquito species distribution varied, with distinct ecological preferences observed with Anopheles gambiae dominated coastal and semi-arid areas, while Anopheles funestus was highest in the highland and lake zones. Regression analysis indicated that a combination of environmental factors and public health interventions, including insecticide-treated nets (ITN) coverage, was an important predictor of malaria prevalence. However, the relationship between these factors and malaria prevalence varied across regions and time periods. CONCLUSION: This study provides insights into the spatial dynamics of mosquito species and their distribution in relation to malaria epidemiological zones in Kenya, thereby informing targeted control strategies.
