Abstract

Mortality and loss to follow-up among Tuberculosis patients on treatment in Meru County, Kenya: a retrospective cohort study

Ngari MM, Mberia JK, Kanana E, Sanga D, Ngari MK, Nyagah DN, Abdullahi OA
PLOS Glob Public Health. 2025;5

Permenent descriptor

Tuberculosis (TB) remains a leading cause of death globally. Patients who get lost to follow-up (LTFU) during TB treatment have high risk of relapse, mortality, treatment failure and developing Multidrug resistant TB. Empirical data to monitor long-term TB treatment outcomes in low-and-middle income countries (LMICs) are sparse. We determined proportion of TB patients who die or are LTFU during six months of treatment and identified factors independently associated with mortality or LTFU. A retrospective cohort using data from routine Meru County TB surveillance system was conducted. We included 38020 records of TB patients aged ≥15 years on treatment 2012‒2022. TB treatment outcomes of interest were LTFU or death within six months of treatment. Survival analyses accounting for competing events were performed. Among the 38020 patients, 27608 (73%) were male and the median (IQR) age was 32 [25‒42] years. 26599 (70%) had bacteriologically confirmed TB while 11421 (30%) were clinically diagnosed. During 16531 person-years of follow-up, 2385 (6.3%, 95%CI 6.0‒6.5) and 1942 (5.1%, 95%CI 4.9‒5.3) patients were LTFU and died respectively. In the multivariable model, patients on re-treatment after LTFU or after failure and those previously treated compared to new TB patients were positively associated with LTFU. Patients coinfected with HIV and those with unknown HIV status were positively associated with LTFU. In contrast, females, clinically diagnosed, extra-pulmonary TB and older patients were negatively associated with LTFU. HIV infected patients on ARVs, not on ARVs and unknown HIV status compared to not infected were positively associated with mortality. Other comorbidities (not HIV), clinically diagnosed, undernourished and older patients were positively associated with mortality. More than 10% of TB patients either die or are LTFU before completing treatment. Targeted interventions are needed to improve treatment outcomes for TB patients who are at high risk of death or being LTFU.