Abstract
How modelling can better support public health policy making: the Lancet Commission on Strengthening the Use of Epidemiological Modelling of Emerging and Pandemic Infectious Diseases
Lancet. 2024;403
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https://doi.org/10.1016/s0140-6736(23)02758-7
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Humans, *Pandemics/prevention & control, *Health Policy, Access and Delivery Partnership (ADP), hosted by the UNDP, and is supported by, the Ministry of Public Health, Thailand. WI, SKC, SVD, CR, and YT report funding, to their institution from the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, ADP, and UNDP and, non-financial support from the Ministry of Public Health, Thailand, and travel, support from the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. MJ reports funding paid to, their institution from UK Research and Innovation (UKRI), UK National Institute, for Health Research, Research Councils UK, the UK Foreign, Commonwealth and, Development Office, WHO, the European Commission, the Bill & Melinda Gates, Foundation, Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance, the US Centers for Disease Control and, Prevention, the Taskforce for Global Health, and the Wellcome Trust. ZMC reports, grants paid to their institution from the International Development Research, Centre (IDRC) and travel support from WHO and PAHO. JRCP reports a grant paid to, their institution from the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, consulting fees from, the National Institute for Public Health and the Environment (RIVM), the, Netherlands, travel support from RIVM, the Royal Society of London, and the Bill, & Melinda Gates Foundation, and is an unpaid member of the Ministerial Advisory, Committee on COVID-19, South Africa, the Strategic Advisory Board, MRC Centre for, Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Imperial College London, and the, International Clinics on Infectious Disease Dynamics and Data. ET reports a grant, from UKRI. SMT reports funding to his institution from the Bill & Melinda Gates, Foundation, and US Agency for International Development. ML is seconded part-time, to the US CDC's Center for Forecasting and Outbreak Analytics but writes here in, his academic capacity, and this Comment does not necessarily reflect the views of, any government agency. ARC reports funding from Singapore's National Medical, Research Council, Ministry of Education, National Research Foundation, and, National Parks Board. GIM reports funding to his institution from the Bill &, Melinda Gates Foundation. JM receives funding from the Australian Government, through the National Health and Medical Research Council, Department of Health, and Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade, and the WHO. HC reports funding from, Singapore's National Medical Research Council. JJD is funded by the US National, Institutes of Health (NIH), the South African Department of Science and, Technology, the US Agency for International Development (USAID) Partnerships for, Enhanced Engagement in Research (PEER), and the South African Medical Research, Council (SAMRC) through its Division of Research Capacity Development (under the, Early Career Investigators Programme) Research Capacity Development Initiative, from funding received from the South African National Treasury. All the other, authors declare no competing interests. The members of the Lancet Commission on, Strengthening the Use of Epidemiological Modelling of Emerging and Pandemic, Infectious Diseases are Wanrudee Isaranuwatchai (Co-Chair), Edwine Barasa,, Crystal Chua, Hannah Clapham, Alex R Cook, Zulma M Cucunuba, Saudamini Vishwanath, Dabak, Janan J Dietrich, Ruth R Faden, David L Heymann, Sarin K C, Jennifer, Kealy, Gabriel M Leung, Stephen S Lim, Marc Lipsitch, Rachel Lowe, Jodie, McVernon, Gautam I Menon, Chris Erwin G Mercado, Juliet R C Pulliam, Chayapat, Rachatan, Yot Teerawattananon, Erica Thompson, S M Thumbi, and Mark Jit, (Co-Chair) Health Economics Research Unit, KEMRI-Wellcome Trust Research, Programme, Nairobi, Kenya (EB), Saw Swee Hock School of Public Health, Tahir, Foundation Building, National University of Singapore, Singapore (ARC, CC, HC,, CEGM), Faculty of Medicine, Pontificia Universidad Javeriana, Hospital, Universitario San Ignacio, Bogotá, Colombia (ZMC), African Social Sciences Unit, of Research and Evaluation (ASSURE), Health Sciences Faculty, University of the, Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South Africa (JJD), Berman Institute of Bioethics,, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD, USA (RRF), Health Intervention and, Technology Assessment Program, Department of Health, Ministry of Public Health,, Muang, Nonthaburi, Thailand (WI, YT, SVD, SKC, CR), London School of Hygiene &, Tropical Medicine, London WC1E 7HT, UK (MJ, DLH, JK, RL), University of Hong, Kong, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, China (GML), Institute for Health, Metrics and Evaluation, Population Health Building/Hans Rosling Center, Seattle,, WA, USA (SSL), Harvard T H Chan School of Public Health, Boston, MA, USA (ML), Barcelona Supercomputing Center (BSC) and Catalan Institution for Research and, Advanced Studies (ICREA), Barcelona, Spain (RL), Peter Doherty Institute for, Infection and Immunity, Melbourne, VIC, Australia (JM), Ashoka University, Rajiv, Gandhi Education City, National Capital Region P.O. Rai, Sonepat Haryana, India, (GIM), Center for Epidemiological Modelling and Analysis, University of Nairobi,, Institute of Tropical and Infectious Disease, Faculty of Health Sciences Campus,, Kenyatta Hospital Compound, Nairobi, Kenya (SMT), Institute of Immunology and, Infection Research, School of Biological Sciences, University of Edinburgh,, Edinburgh, UK (SMT), Paul G Allen School for Global Health, Washington State, University, Pullman, WA, USA (SMT), South African DSI-NRF Centre of Excellence in, Epidemiological Modelling and Analysis, Stellenbosch University, Stellenbosch,, South Africa (JRCP), Department of Science, Technology, Engineering and Public, Policy, University College London, London, UK (ET) (Source: Medline)External Sources
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